An Introduction To NFL Preseason Handicapping

There\’s not much \’middle ground\’ when it comes to the desirability of betting NFL preseason games. The overly conservative handicappers suggest that its a poor wagering opportunity, while the \’boiler room\’ sports touts try to suggest that short of a fixed game there\’s no more sure thing than preseason football. There\’s a degree of truth in both views. Handicapping preseason NFL football is a unique discipline unto itself, but with knowledge and caution it can be a profitable endeavor.

The opponent of preseason wagering would suggest that its a bad wagering opportunity by its very nature alone–simply stated, the games don\’t count meaning that the motivation and focus of individual teams is always in question. It\’s hard enough to identify teams that are in a desirable \’spot\’ during the regular season, the often conflicting agendas of personnel evaluation, playbook testing, and injury prevention found in the preseason makes it impossible. All told, this uncertainty makes it very undesirable to get financially involved with preseason NFL games.

The proponent of preseason wagering would argue that this is the very reason that good opportunities frequently arise during preseason. First, additional value is frequently found with the underdog in preseason games by their very nature. To explain, in a hypothetical matchup between a Superbowl champion and an also-ran the \”better\” team by regular season standards would invariably be favored. However, by virtue of their success the \”better\” teams have not only more \’marquee names\’ to protect, but also valued guys in the trenches who could cause big problems if injured. Frequently, they\’ll have more depth and thus fewer personnel evaluation decisions to deal with. They\’ll have no need to \”create a winning attitude\”, nor will they usually have wholesale changes in team composition, offensive or defensive strategy, or coaching philosophies to deal with. In short, the \”better\” teams often go into preseason situations with little to accomplish other than to get the games over with and stay healthy.

On the other hand, consider the \’lesser\’ team in a preseason matchup. They often have a number of key starting positions they need to fill, along with backup positions up for grabs. They may have new coaching staffs that players want to impress, new offensive or defensive schemes to implement. Most significantly, \’lesser\’ teams often view the preseason as an opportunity to build team chemistry or create a winning attitude. A team trying to rebuild can benefit from winning *any* games, regardless of whether or not they count in the standings. For a league doormat, a win over an elite level opponent can serve as a rare highlight of a losing season.

Even among teams that don\’t worry much about wins and losses during the preseason, they don\’t want to go into the season losing them all. For that reason, one of the most successful preseason situations over the past decade and a half have been teams that lost their first two preseason affairs. During that span, 0-2 teams have hit right around 60% against the spread.

There may be no greater determining factor of a team\’s preseason success than the philosophy of their head coach. Some coaches just don\’t like to lose *any* game, and usually these hyper-competitive teams are good preseason bets. Bill Parcells, for example, was legendary for his serious approach to preseason games. The coaches that he mentored like the NY Giants\’ Tom Coughlin have to some extent carried on this legacy. While the \”good\” preseason coaches are often reflected in the pointspreads assigned to their team, a motivated team is almost always worth a look.

The smart preseason handicapper makes use of the Internet, and more specifically uses it to follow the local sports media of NFL teams. During NFL preseasons, teams\’ beat writers are anxious to write stories and need to fill articles but have little in the way of \”real\” news to write about. As a result, a handicapper can frequently find valuable details like a coach\’s goals for the game, playing time for key players, and specific strategies that will be implemented. Occasionally, coaches will come out and say that they\’re more interested in evaluating certain players for certain positions than they are in the outcome of the game. A thorough evaluation of this type of media coverage can often produce not only teams to play \”on\”, but teams with priorities other than winning to play \”against\”.

In conclusion, there are certainly strong opportunities for profit in NFL preseason wagering but its essential to understand that it cannot be approached in the same manner as the regular season. And, as always, its important to remember that there will be more strong opportunities down the road and that discipline and rigor in handicapping is just as crucial in the preseason NFL as it is at any other time of the year.

Ross Everett is a experienced freelance writer who covers travel, casino gambling and sports handicapping. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, fencing and deep sea diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.

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